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Posted by on Apr 1, 2014 in Pring Turner Capital Group

The Treasury Yield Curve Starts its Tightening Process

The Treasury Yield Curve Starts its Tightening Process

Martin Pring is the Investment Strategist to the AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ)—and since 1984, he has published the “Intermarket Review,” a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Here, Martin shares his latest technical analysis.   Source: Reuters   This chart shows that the ratio between 2- and 20-year treasury yields has broken out to the upside, as this segment of the yield curve has begun its long journey towards inversion. This is a condition where short rates move above longer-term ones which is represented in the chart as a plot above the dashed brown line. The data indicate that previous advances in this spectrum of the yield curve have also been followed by or coincided with primary trend bottoms in short-term interest rates. This spread actually reached its low in 2011, so the March breakout signals the second stage in the move towards a flattening.  This process is the market’s way of reflecting a tightening in the system, which sooner or later...

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Posted by on Mar 3, 2014 in Pring Turner Capital Group

The Shanghai Composite and its Moment of Truth

The Shanghai Composite and its Moment of Truth

Martin Pring is the Investment Strategist to the AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ)—and since 1984, he has published the “Intermarket Review,” a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. In his latest technical analysis, Martin weighs-in on indicators from the Shanghai Composite and what it may mean for the Chinese economy. Recent commentaries on the Chinese economy have been mixed. Some have chosen to focus on real estate problems and a potential banking crisis, whereas others place greater weight on recent reforms and a positive shift to a more consumer oriented economy as a justification for higher Chinese equity prices. This dichotomy of opinion is reflected in the technical action of the Shanghai Composite, which is resting close to the apex of two key converging trendlines. That means that the moment of truth is probably close at hand. The market itself will make the final decision, but supplementary technical evidence favors a positive outcome. On the one hand, if the Index falls below the...

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Posted by on Feb 3, 2014 in Market Insight, Pring Turner Capital Group

One indicator that suggests the secular equity bear is about to resume

One indicator that suggests the secular equity bear is about to resume

Martin is the Investment Strategist to the AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ)—and since 1984, he has published the “Intermarket Review,” a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Martin shares his technical analysis on the current stock/bond return relationship and its potential impact for the markets. The ratio between the Shiller P/E and Moody’s AAA Corporate Bond Yield compares the rate of return between stocks and bonds. It serves as a useful measure that reflects investor sentiment between the two asset classes. A low reading indicates that stocks are undervalued against bonds and a high one an overvalued and risky situation for equities. Usually when the ratio reverses from an undervalued level it represents a great buying opportunity for equities. Since 1880 four such situations developed. Three of them, 1921, 1932 and 1982 represented secular lows. By the same token, eight prescient sell signals were also triggered as the indicator peaked at or above its overvalued zone. Two of those warnings were also associated...

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Posted by on Jan 31, 2014 in Market Insight, Pring Turner Capital Group

After a 177% Gain, What Should Investors Emphasize Now?

After a 177% Gain, What Should Investors Emphasize Now?

Pring Turner Capital Group, Portfolio Manager of AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ), share their outlook on a transition stage in the current business cycle. In March 2009 the S&P 500 reached its lowest point since the turn of the 21st century. Nearly five years and 177% later many investors find themselves looking on from the sidelines with substantial cash positions. The S&P 500 continues to make new highs, leaving many stock valuations stretched to the upside. The low hanging investment fruit have already been picked over making it much more difficult to find bargain investment opportunities. Now more than ever in order to succeed investors need to employ an investment roadmap that adapts to the ever changing financial market landscape. Ultimate Investment Road Map: The Business Cycle The business cycle is the normal, sequential, and repeated ups (expansions) and downs (recessions) of the economy. This continuous cycle has repeated over and over since the United States became industrialized in the mid- 1800s. We believe the business cycle...

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Posted by on Jan 2, 2014 in Market Insight, Pring Turner Capital Group

Is it Lift off Time for Commodity Prices?

Is it Lift off Time for Commodity Prices?

Martin is the Investment Strategist to the AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ)—and since 1984, he has published the “Intermarket Review,” a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Martin shares his technical analysis on short and long term market momentum and the potential effect for commodity prices. Since records began in the early nineteenth century industrial commodity prices have alternated between secular bull and bear markets averaging 20-years. Sometimes, such as the post 1980 period, “bear markets” have taken the form of trading ranges, but the alternating pattern nevertheless still exists. The current secular bull began in December 2001. If 2011 marked its peak it will have been one of the shortest on record. Our work though, argues otherwise. One indicator that we have found to be helpful in this regard is a price oscillator (trend deviation) based on the relationship between a 60- and 300-month simple moving average.  Secular buy and sell signals are triggered when it crosses above and below its 48-month...

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