The Election Impact of the High Yield Market: Rates and Regulation, The Interest Rate Outlook, Part 2
By Heather Rupp, CFA, Director of Communications and Research Analyst for Peritus Asset Management, Sub-Advisor of the AdvisorShares Peritus High Yield ETF (NYSE Arca: HYLD) As we look at the implications of a Trump presidency and Republican controlled Congress, last week we discussed our interest rate outlook. While the market seems to be jumping to the conclusion that infrastructure and other government spending and the benefit of lower taxes will drive growth and inflation, and with it interest rates, we aren’t a believer that we will see dramatic move upward in rates (Treasury yields) from where we are now. Part of our reasoning here is the fact the yields on the US medium and longer term Treasuries are much higher versus sovereign debt rates globally. 10-year bonds in much of the rest of the developed world are yielding around 0-1% and many of these economies are still in the midst of quantitative easing and stimulus.1 Between the higher rates the US Treasury bonds already offer relative...
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