The High Yield Market: Market Size, Ownership, Funds, and Opportunities
By Heather Rupp, CFA, Director of Communications and Research Analyst for Peritus Asset Management, Sub-Advisor of the AdvisorShares Peritus High Yield ETF (NYSE Arca: HYLD)
The entire U.S. fixed income market (municipals, Treasuries, mortgages, corporates, federal agency bonds, money market, and asset back securities) totals over $40 trillion.1
Corporate credit (high grade corporate bonds, high yield corporate bonds, and floating rate loans) is about $8.9 trillion of this pie. The high yield bond market is a large and growing market, now totaling $1.5 trillion in the U.S. and $2.0 trillion of U.S. dollar denominated high yield debt globally.2
If you add in high yield floating rate loans, that includes another nearly $0.9 trillion and together high yield bonds and loans account for nearly 30% of corporate debt. One thing is clear, that the high yield debt market is a growing market, and we believe one that cannot be ignored for fixed income investors.
As we look at just who owns high yield bonds, the three largest categories of owners are pension funds, insurance companies, and retail mutual funds, all of which have relatively similar size of ownership at just over a quarter of the market each.3
With this we see both institutional and retail customers as active in the space. At $42.1 billion, high yield exchange traded funds (ETFs) account for about 14.2% of the total $296 billion “retail” high yield fund base4, which includes the much larger mutual fund counterpart. High yield ETFs account for about 2.8% of the broader U.S. high yield market and have been around that level for the last five years, and loan ETFs are just over 1% of the total U.S. loan market.5
While a very small portion of the total market, the place of high yield ETFs within the broader high yield bond market has been a discussion point over the last couple years, with some critics speculating that some widespread sell pressure in high yield ETFs could cause a collapse in high yield markets due to “liquidity” issues. We have previously explained how regulations post the financial crisis have led to less market making and lower dealer inventory of bonds, and the impact that has had on markets (see our piece “Understanding Market Liquidity”, “The Pricing Issue in High Yield“).
Flows in and out of these “retail” mutual and exchange traded funds (though we know that various institutions are buyers of mutual and ETFs as well) can be volatile week over week, but again, these flows pale in comparison to size of the total market. For instance looking back over the last year and a half of weekly retail exchange traded and mutual fund flows (chart below)6, the second largest reported weekly retail outflow on record occurred in March 2017 and totaled around $5.68 billion.7 This amount compared to a $1.5 trillion U.S. high yield bond market means it is about 0.4% of the total market, so seemingly miniscule.
Over this period, the largest ETF-specific weekly outflow (and the largest on ETF outflow record) was $3.45bil8, so only about 0.2% of the total U.S. high yield market size. Last week we saw the third largest ETF-related daily outflow on record and with that, the high yield market was down only 0.25%9, which certainly indicates that the market was able to handle the large ETF outflows without any significant disruption.
Not only do we see ETFs benefiting from their in-kind redemption mechanisms, in this environment of lower dealer inventory and heightened price volatility, we believe that high yield ETFs provide an advantage over mutual funds during more volatile times because ETFs trade/price intra-day, so we would argue provide a more accurate and true pricing mechanism for going in and out of the high yield market than mutual funds that only trade at the end of the day.
We see the high yield bond and loan market as an important piece of the fixed income asset class, especially in this global low yield and high domestic equity valuation environment. We believe that high yield ETFs provide investors great accessibility to the asset class. And while the post financial crisis regulations may add an element of volatility to the market, we would view this volatility as an opportunity for active managers like Peritus who have the ability to capitalize on discounts and can be intentional about the credits they invest in. While we have seen a strong year plus for the high yield market, we believe that there are still attractive opportunities within the high yield space for active managers who are able to search for value.
1 From the publication “Outstanding U.S. Bond Market Debt” release by SIFMA, data as of 12/31/16. Loan market size as of 12/31/16 from Acciavatti, Peter D., Tony Linares, Nelson R. Jantzen, CFA, Rahul Sharma, and Chuanxin Li.. “Credit Strategy Weekly Update,” J.P. Morgan, North American High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research, January 6, 2017, p.51. US High Yield Market size as of 11/30/16 from Acciavatti, Peter D., Tony Linares, Nelson R. Jantzen, CFA, Rahul Sharma, and Chuanxin Li, “2016 High-Yield Annual Review,” J.P. Morgan, North American High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research, December 30, 2016, p. 279, https://markets.jpmorgan.com/?#research.na.high_yield.
2 Acciavatti, Peter D., Tony Linares, Nelson R. Jantzen, CFA, Rahul Sharma, and Chuanxin Li.. “Credit Strategy Weekly Update,” J.P. Morgan, North American High Yield and Leveraged Loan Research, January 6, 2017, p.51, https://markets.jpmorgan.com/?#research.na.high_yield.
3 Acciavatti, Peter, Tony Linares, Nelson Jantzen, CFA, Rahul Sharma, and Chuanxin Li. “2016 High-Yield Annual Review,” J.P. Morgan North American High Yield Research, December 30, 2016, p. 296, https://markets.jpmorgan.com.
4 Acciavatti, Peter, Tony Linares, Nelson Jantzen, CFA, Rahul Sharma, and Chuanxin Li. “2016 High-Yield Annual Review,” J.P. Morgan North American High Yield Research, December 30, 2016, p. 117-118, https://markets.jpmorgan.com.
5 Acciavatti, Peter, Tony Linares, Nelson Jantzen, CFA, Rahul Sharma, and Chuanxin Li. “2016 High-Yield Annual Review,” J.P. Morgan North American High Yield Research, December 30, 2016, p. 117-118, https://markets.jpmorgan.com.
6 Jantzen, Nelson, CFA and Peter Acciavatti, “JPM High-Yield and Leverage Loan Morning Intelligence,” J.P. Morgan North American Credit Research, 6/23/17, 4/20/17, 2/3/17, 11/23/16, 10/26/16. https://markets.jpmorgan.com. Leverage Commentary and Data, www.lcdcomps.com. Based on weekly reported fund flow information, including Jon Hemingway, “HY funds see $899M of inflows in latest week,” 8/18/16; Matt Fuller, “US HY fund flows turn negative with ETF-heavy outflow,” 5/26/16; Matt Fuller, “Investors dump record $5B of retail cash into US HY funds,” 3/3/16.
7 Jantzen, Nelson, CFA and Peter Acciavatti, “JPM High-Yield and Leverage Loan Morning Intelligence,” J.P. Morgan North American Credit Research, 3/17/17, https://markets.jpmorgan.com/?#research.na.high_yield.
8 Leverage Commentary and Data, www.lcdcomps.com. John Hemingway, “HY funds endure whopping $4.12B outflow,” 11/3/16.
9 Morning Intelligence, 6/22/17. Daily return based on the one day return for the JP Morgan US High Yield Index.
Although information and analysis contained herein has been obtained from sources Peritus I Asset Management, LLC believes to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This report is for informational purposes only. Any recommendation made in this report may not be suitable for all investors. As with all investments, investing in high yield corporate bonds and loans and other fixed income, equity, and fund securities involves various risks and uncertainties, as well as the potential for loss. High yield bonds are lower rated bonds and involve a greater degree of risk versus investment grade bonds in return for the higher yield potential. As such, securities rated below investment grade generally entail greater credit, market, issuer, and liquidity risk than investment grade securities. Interest rate risk may also occur when interest rates rise. Past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future results. The index returns and other statistics are provided for purposes of comparison and information, however an investment cannot be made in an index.