The French Election Moves Markets
April 24, 2017
Dennis Gartman is editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, and strategic advisor of the AdvisorShares Gartman Currency Hedged Gold ETFs (GEUR & GYEN). He regularly contributes to AlphaBaskets and lends his institutional insight to educate advisors and investors about commodities and the forex markets, including about trading gold in different currency terms.
The euro is very, very sharply higher; the yen is equally sharply lower as the world pays heed, of course, to the news out of France regarding the1st round Presidential election there. The EUR’s uncommon strength is the result, of course of the widely expected results of the French Presidential election which saw Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Macron “go through” to the 2nd round and the relief that the worst possible news… that of a run-off between Ms. Le Pen, the far right wing candidate and Mr. Melenchon, the arch leftist… nee Communist… has not come to fruition. The EUR, however, has come back far from its best levels, for in the first few moments following the closing of the French polls yesterday evening in France as the news was swiftly of the Le Pen vs. Macron run-off, the EUR traded all the way to 1.0965 amidst ill-advised, panic buying and/or equally ill-advised panic short covering. There is more to say about the election, but suffice it to be said here initially that barring some unforeseen and truly tragic terrorist activities in France… or actually anywhere in Europe… over the course of the next two weeks before the 2nd round run-off is held, Mr. Macron will win the Presidency of France handily. Those on the Left may find him less than left-enough for their first round voting taste, but clearly they will prefer him to Ms. Le Pen in the 2nd round. Further, already Mr. Fillon… our preferred candidate and the gentleman most like mainline Republicans here in the US… has said that he will vote for Mr. Macron, bringing most of his supporters along with him. Ms. Le Pen will find it hard to attract more than 40-45% of the French voters to her far right-of-center banner, while Mr. Macron will suffer from the lack of campaign infrastructure. In the end, however, he will prevail and the fears regarding the EUR will be greatly assuaged.