Regards From Dennis Gartman
May 16, 2016
Dennis Gartman is editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, and strategic advisor of the AdvisorShares Gartman Currency Hedged Gold ETFs (GEUR & GYEN). He regularly contributes to AlphaBaskets and lends his institutional insight to educate advisors and investors about commodities and the forex markets, including about trading gold in different currency terms.
Regarding China, the economic news was indeed a bit disappointing with the National Bureau of Statistics noting firstly that factory output there rose “only” 6.0% in April vs. that of a year ago when most analysts in Shanghai has hoped that something closer to +6.5% was the more likely outcome. We are not of the mind that a “miss” of 0.5% in year-on-year growth is material when it comes to China, but apparently we are in the minority. However, even we shall suggest that today’s 6.0% rise when compared to last month’s 6.8% year-on-year rise is dismaying.
Regarding the ever more closely impending referendum in the UK on whether the country should stay or leave the political union, the latest poll from The Economist magazine has the “leave” and “stay” sides effectively tied at 41% in favor of remaining while 40% are in favor of exiting. However, we think this fails… badly… to understand the propensity of each side to actually get to the polls to vote. We are convinced that the “remain” voters are far less likely to vote in the actual referendum than are those in favor of exiting and in the end the “Leavers” will carry the day [Ed. Note: The Referendum is set for June 23rd, or a bit more than a month away. Things shall grow more and more interesting with each passing day henceforth, as a result.