CRB Reverts To An Important Trendline
Martin Pring is the Investment Strategist to the AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ)—and since 1984, he has published the “Intermarket Review,” a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Here, Martin shares his latest technical analysis.
The CRB Spot Raw Industrials have fallen back to their secular bull market trendline, which goes back to 2001 and is nearly 14-years in length. Notice that the three previous secular bear/trading range environments were all signaled by some kind of secular bull market trendline violation. Recent action can be seen in greater detail in Chart 29. It is also important to note that the price has already crossed below its 96-month MA. This 8-year MA does not have a perfect record of identifying secular trend reversals, but it has been reasonably consistent in the last 200-years. The green and red highlights indicate when our secular model is bullish or bearish for commodities. The highlight is currently in black, indicating a neutral mode. A bearish signal requires a negative 48-month MA crossover by the secular price oscillator in the bottom window. It is declining at this time, but is still slightly above the average. Since our primary trend indicators for commodity prices do not look as if they are likely to go bullish any time soon, the odds favor the secular commodity model moving into a bearish position this side of summer.