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Posted by on Jan 24, 2017 in Market Insight, Pring Turner Capital Group

Changing Financial Market Themes for 2017

Changing Financial Market Themes for 2017

Guest contribution from Pring Turner Investment Management   2017 Market Outlook Executive Summary: Contrary to conventional wisdom, stocks responded very well to the surprising presidential election results. No one knows the specifics of new economic policies nor when they will begin to affect the economy, but our view is the positive aspects will outweigh the negatives. Although there may be occasional downdrafts, we believe the major trend continues to be upward and we remain optimistic for 2017!   In our Fall Market Update (click to read), we likened the economy to a race car driver needing to stop for refueling. A pit stop is a necessary rest in order to continue the race. Business cycle fundamentals were already improving pre-election. Our view was, no matter who was to win the election, the economy had taken a short breather but was prepared to “rejoin the race” and extend the bull market for stocks, Six Reasons to Be Bullish (click to read). And indeed it did! Contrary to conventional wisdom, stocks responded...

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Posted by on Nov 10, 2015 in Market Insight, Pring Turner Capital Group

Pring’s Chart Of The Month

Pring’s Chart Of The Month

Martin Pring is founder of Pring Research and author of the “Intermarket Review,” a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Here, Martin shares a portion of his latest technical analysis.     This chart compares inflation adjusted stock prices with a secular momentum measure of commodity prices. The oscillator has been inverted to approximate price moves in equities. Since the mid-nineteenth century, there have been four occasions when the oscillator has reversed to an upward direction; i.e., signaling a secular decline in commodity prices. The timing has usually been late but each signal was followed by several years of rising stock prices. In the last couple of months the oscillator has again reversed to the upside, so if past is prolog and the latest marginal signal turns into a decisive one it is probable that equity prices could be headed much higher. Certainly a relationship worth monitoring in the period ahead.  ...

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Posted by on Oct 9, 2015 in Market Insight, Pring Turner Capital Group

Bond Market Confidence at a Critical Juncture

Bond Market Confidence at a Critical Juncture

Martin Pring is founder of Pring Research and author of the “Intermarket Review,” a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Here, Martin shares a portion of his latest technical analysis. Bond market investors express their confidence in the economy by bidding up lower quality bonds against high quality ones and vice versa. The following chart features three of these relationships and shows they are all, to some extent, resting above long-term support, as represented by the red trendlines. A rally above the three green trendlines would indicate a trend of growing confidence and a positive vote for the economy. This would be bullish for stocks and commodities. On the other hand if, as seems more likely, the three red trendlines are penetrated, this would be quite a serious financial event since it would signal a renewed trend of deteriorating confidence is underway. Given the length of the red versus the green lines, this would represent a much more ominous...

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Posted by on Sep 15, 2015 in Market Insight, Pring Turner Capital Group

A Turn of the Tide Revisited

A Turn of the Tide Revisited

Martin Pring is the Investment Strategist to the AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ)—and since 1984, he has published the “Intermarket Review,” a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Here, Martin shares his latest technical analysis.   US equities reached a major inflexion point in the year 2000. It was historic because it represented both a secular and primary reversal. A primary trend revolves around the business cycle and typically lasts 2-3 years, whereas a secular one lasts much longer and embraces several cycles. Our objective here is to revisit an article published earlier this year in which we pointed out some ominous signs for US equities. At that time some trend reversal signals, such as negative long-term moving average crossovers, were required as confirmation. Those signals have now been given, which is why the odds favor July 2015 as marking both a cyclical turning point and the start of the third down leg in the current secular bear market. Let us begin with...

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Posted by on May 6, 2015 in Investment Perspective, Pring Turner Capital Group

What Commodity Momentum Tells Us About Equities

What Commodity Momentum Tells Us About Equities

Martin Pring is the Investment Strategist to the AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ)—and since 1984, he has published the “Intermarket Review,” a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Here, Martin shares his latest technical analysis.   It is fact that equity prices prosper when commodity prices are relatively stable. Normally, it is the instability of commodities on the upside that disturbs equities, such as that experienced between 1973 and 1974. However, downside volatility in the commodity pits can be even more devastating. Just consider the sharp drop in both markets in the second half of 2008, 1921 or even the 1930/32 experience. That said, we can use long-term trends in commodity momentum to signal favorable long-term environments for equities. This chart, for instance, features our secular commodity momentum indicator. It is calculated by dividing a 60-month by a 360-month MA of commodity prices. We have inverted the actual series so that it moves in the same direction as equity prices. The arrows show...

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Posted by on Mar 5, 2015 in Pring Turner Capital Group

CRB Reverts To An Important Trendline

CRB Reverts To An Important Trendline

Martin Pring is the Investment Strategist to the AdvisorShares Pring Turner Business Cycle ETF (DBIZ)—and since 1984, he has published the “Intermarket Review,” a monthly global market report revered among analysts and market technicians. Here, Martin shares his latest technical analysis. The CRB Spot Raw Industrials have fallen back to their secular bull market trendline, which goes back to 2001 and is nearly 14-years in length. Notice that the three previous secular bear/trading range environments were all signaled by some kind of secular bull market trendline violation. Recent action can be seen in greater detail in Chart 29. It is also important to note that the price has already crossed below its 96-month MA. This 8-year MA does not have a perfect record of identifying secular trend reversals, but it has been reasonably consistent in the last 200-years. The green and red highlights indicate when our secular model is bullish or bearish for commodities. The highlight is currently in black, indicating a neutral mode. A bearish signal requires a...

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